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...It sounds almost as though you think that the podcasting model may well win out in the end - simply because it lets you choose what turns up to listen to, certainly in genre terms, without actually dictating the absolute content....

<Noddy smiles to himself>

Hell yeah, Steve! Count me among the believers.
I've got 8 channels of content at the moment, and am currently collecting some demographic data on my listeners. Once I've collected a reasonable sample of data, I will be out there looking for advertisers, and once there's advertising revenue, I'll be looking to outsource some of the production work, which will then allow me to bring in more channels of content, which will bring in more revenue, which will allow more outsourcing... and so on and so forth.
Personally, I believe this (podcasting) is going to shake traditional media channels a bit. I'm certainly not predicting that "podcasting will bury radio" or anything like that, 'cause I don't think it will. There will always be a market for the spontenaity of radio; something that podcasting by it's very nature can not provide.

...So I think that shows and personalities will not need radio stations as their platforms/media, they will be able to market themselves and their shows online....

Did you hear Adam Curry talking about that woman (whose name I have just managed to misplace)... BBC presenter, who has just started her own podcast?
She was saying exactly this. The freedom is like nothing else she's ever had despite her success in traditional radio.
Damn, I'll have to go through my old DSC's and find her name.

I'm saying that specific newspaper sections or articles, specific TV and radio shows will be more easily available to consume. So I think that shows and personalities will not need radio stations as their platforms/media, they will be able to market themselves and their shows online, so, yes, I believe more than ever, that in the future envisaged there is defintely a place for variety radio shows like mine. That's not to say there is a contradiction here. My show has it's own format and personality and the variety of music I play and talk about fall into that 'mood'.

I can see that if you choose to define a show which isn't directly targetted in subject terms as a sort of macro-genre in itself (Hmm, that's twice I've mentioned macro today - must be something in the water!), then this would be true. Or even if you present yourself as a genre, it would be - which is pretty much what attracts conventional radio listeners to a show anyway, isn't it?

So really, if you put up shows with a lot of variety in them as podcasts, then noddy's demographic results will show how true this is in terms of uptake at least, possibly also with content-related feedback. At least if there is to be a long-term paradigm shift in patterns of listening (which could happen, despite what 'conventional' broadcasters claim) the baby doesn't get thrown out with the bathwater this way, and I'm sure that this is quite important as a principle, certainly when it comes to tempting existing listeners to change their listening model.

I did some research in the mid 90's, which looked at the effectiveness of a particular learning delivery method that was different from any previous model used for this particular subject (and this was with a generally older cohort than I would imagine most podcast listeners to be), and found that the users adapted quite well to the change, and indeed noted some considerable benefits from it - and there were significant similarities in this particular delivery method to those that podcasting offers. I am still left wondering though, how much the delivery model affects the way people actually perceive the content - in this case, it's not clear how integrating something that doesn't quite fit the existing model is going to be acceptable when the initial novelty of podcasting has worn off, and it's become mainstream (when noddy can put his feet up in his million-dollar mansion in the outback.... ) - in other words, will podcasting remain predominantly a means of delivering very specifically targetted content where broader items stand out as 'not quite fitting the mould', if you see what I mean?

I think that this is something that time alone will provide the answer to...

I should also add that I'm quite in favour of the basic principle of podcasting - it suits my preferred listening mode quite well, although I don't do it with portable player.

...certainly when it comes to tempting existing listeners to change their listening model...

I won't pretend to know all the answers, but I'm not sure that a lot of "tempting" is going to be required. There appears to be a lot of dissatisfaction with what mainstream radio dishes up these days. My site is still in it's infancy, but when you see consistent increases week by week of listenership in the order of 20-30% (!), that has to say something about people's willingness to try an alternative source, doesn't it?

...and it's become mainstream (when noddy can put his feet up in his million-dollar mansion in the outback....

Hehe... bring it on.

...in other words, will podcasting remain predominantly a means of delivering very specifically targetted content where broader items stand out as 'not quite fitting the mould', if you see what I mean?

If what you're saying is that the more niche the topic of a podcast, the more successful they'll tend to be, I agree with you. Building the pod is what I would call a niche topic, and yet it's probably the second highest rating of my 8 channels.

...I should also add that I'm quite in favour of the basic principle of podcasting - it suits my preferred listening mode quite well, although I don't do it with portable player.

The data that I'm collecting shows that too. Personally, I'm just as likely to listen on my desktop as on my portable as well.

If what you're saying is that the more niche the topic of a podcast, the more successful they'll tend to be, I agree with you. Building the pod is what I would call a niche topic, and yet it's probably the second highest rating of my 8 channels.

What I am suggesting is that if this does turn out to be the preferred model, then it would seem that this would inevitably be the case - to the possible detriment of any content that would be perceived as being of broader interest.

In Bernie's case, if this happens, it seems to indicate that he would have to be promoting himself, rather than the show - if you see what I mean.

Oh, I get ya! Yeah, I'd go along with that. Already, the Daily Source Code is becoming a bit like that.
I started out listening to it to learn more about podcasting, but as the weeks go on, there's less and less focus on podcasting, and more and more just Adam rattling on about his pet subjects (mashups, bio-deisel, the backroom deals he's got going down with the likes of Microsoft and Apple et al, Senseo, and flying).
Which, for the moment at least, is OK.

Let's be cautious though. We all know the radio didn't kill off the newspapers, the TV didn't kill off the radio, and home video (which is the closest model so far) didn't dramatically change people's TV viewing habits. The newspapers, radio and TV are still here; newspaper sales are starting to suffer, and singles sales are right down too compared to albums, this may suggest a change in the way we listen to music, the novelty of playing one song over and over on the h-fi has worn off (both the hi-fi and the one song). I think there are still monks out there selling their own honey long after the advent of shops. And I much prefer to buy a real loaf of locally, freshly baked bread from the village baker rather than the candy-floss bread you get in supermarkets.

In answer to someone's question some time ago about how popular music has evolved, I offered the explanation that it is always the technology that drives the changes, so that the electric guitar inspired rock n roll, the synth changed pop music, and the sampler brought us rap and hip-hop. Always the technolgy first, not the creative ideas.

All the medias are going digital. My phones, clocks, watches, camera, CDs, my TV, DVD recorder, my computer are also all digital. It's only a matter of time before all media and communication units are available on the one unit, home versions as well as portable. This technology is bound to change the way do things.

It's only a matter of time before Apple launch their TV Pod, it's obvious innit? You connect your Pod to the TV or PC and record TV shows or News or the Football. We can already get News on our phones. So, someone puts the phone and the i-Pod together into one unit, now you can do lots more. Then the phone company adds video-phone, and so it goes on. I personally don't like any small portable things, I bought a Walkman back in the day and never used it because I like to sing along to the music I like (erm, that's why i like it - doh! Why would I listen to music on the train that I don't particularly like?) and you can't do that on the train. So, I do think that the portable headphone i-Pod is a bit faddy and will disappear along with the Walkman. But it's the hardware application of the i-Pod technolgy which WILL be used by people at home. What if I could buy my i-Tunes online and burn my own CDs to play on my hi-fi? Already happenin' isn't it?

We have to be realistic. I'm now a big cynic about internet radio. I shouldn't be should I? The advertising world has not yet decided to find a way of measuring audiences, and the MCPS, PRS, ASCAP and all the other music royalty organisations are still behaving like dodos, so internet radio hasn't yet been able to rise above the hobbyist level. Podcasters be aware, you cannot yet distrubute Podcasts containing music.

There are other obstacles like hopelessly slow internet speeds to factor in. So the digital revolution could be slow, it could be another 10 years before we all have digital TVs and digital radios.

On the positive side, I do foresee that WE are taking much more control of how we distribute and consume our entertainment, communications and education. P2P is currently illegal but it is the early forerunner of much bigger things, even Windows Vista will have an onboard P2P facility and companies are already looking into capitalising on it's awesome potential.

One plea to the techies of the world - can you please please look into the "wires" and plugs situation! I am amazed at how many plugs, leads and cables I have to have in order to use all the machines I do, and this has to be smartened up, it's a bloody mess .. do the techies foresee a wire-LESS future for all the things we currently have plugged in and connected to?

Let's be cautious though. We all know the radio didn't kill off the newspapers, the TV didn't kill off the radio, and home video (which is the closest model so far) didn't dramatically change people's TV viewing habits. The newspapers, radio and TV are still here; newspaper sales are starting to suffer, and singles sales are right down too compared to albums

Yep, I'd go along with all that. I don't expect podcasting to knock off radio anytime soon, but I do belive that 10 years from now, podcasting will be a force to be reckoned with. My vision might be overblown. I guess only time will tell.

So, I do think that the portable headphone i-Pod is a bit faddy and will disappear along with the Walkman.

I disagree on this point. I think that the time-shifting and space-shifting nature of portable media will be what will ensure it's longevity. The Walkman didn't disappear... it just lost it's moving parts and changed it's name to iPod. People's lives are getting busier and busier by the day, and we all have less and less time to consume the entertainment/information we want. This is what will keep portable media growing. Look at the sales of TiVo in the States. People want to be able to control when and where they consume their content. Look at how many mobile phones are coming out with MP3 playback. And how many video phones are appearing, with the capacity to stream live tv.

Podcasters be aware, you cannot yet distrubute Podcasts containing music.

True, but have a look at how fast the Podsafe Music Network is growing!
And podcasters are embracing that content wholeheartedly, for 2 reasons: it's good stuff, and they don't have to pay royalties on it.

... do the techies foresee a wire-LESS future for all the things we currently have plugged in and connected to?

Absolutely. Bluetooth is today's gramaphone. 20 years from now, we won't even be asking ourselves what wireless method we use, because every gadget we own (which by then will probably be just one gadget) will be "always on", and it will be like flicking the light switch. You never ask yourself how the electricity gets to the light, do you? No, 'cause you've come to know that it's always there and as long as it works, who cares howit works?

Let's be cautious though. We all know the radio didn't kill off the newspapers, the TV didn't kill off the radio, and home video (which is the closest model so far) didn't dramatically change people's TV viewing habits. The newspapers, radio and TV are still here; newspaper sales are starting to suffer, and singles sales are right down too compared to albums

Yep, I'd go along with all that. I don't expect podcasting to knock off radio anytime soon, but I do belive that 10 years from now, podcasting will be a force to be reckoned with. My vision might be overblown. I guess only time will tell.

So, I do think that the portable headphone i-Pod is a bit faddy and will disappear along with the Walkman.

I disagree on this point. I think that the time-shifting and space-shifting nature of portable media will be what will ensure it's longevity. The Walkman didn't disappear... it just lost it's moving parts and changed it's name to iPod. People's lives are getting busier and busier by the day, and we all have less and less time to consume the entertainment/information we want. This is what will keep portable media growing. Look at the sales of TiVo in the States. People want to be able to control when and where they consume their content. Look at how many mobile phones are coming out with MP3 playback. And how many video phones are appearing, with the capacity to stream live tv.

Yes, in a way I'm contradicting my own vision. But I see the i-Pods and Blackberry's of today more as championing the future, the forerunners of how we will get and use our media. The portable video camera is the biggest success in this regard, because it does excactly what I'm on about - it just records and you then play the recording on another machine. So it will be with the i-Pod gadgets and portable phones/online gadgets. Let's be honest, the little ear-plugs, the tiny screens and tiny anything will always be faddy. Still being honest, even the keys on our mobile phones are too bloody small, and they've crammed in too much useless stuff on the phones and they're too complicated to learn.

Podcasters be aware, you cannot yet distrubute Podcasts containing music.

True, but have a look at how fast the Podsafe Music Network is growing!
And podcasters are embracing that content wholeheartedly, for 2 reasons: it's good stuff, and they don't have to pay royalties on it.

... do the techies foresee a wire-LESS future for all the things we currently have plugged in and connected to?

Absolutely. Bluetooth is today's gramaphone. 20 years from now, we won't even be asking ourselves what wireless method we use, because every gadget we own (which by then will probably be just one gadget) will be "always on", and it will be like flicking the light switch. You never ask yourself how the electricity gets to the light, do you? No, 'cause you've come to know that it's always there and as long as it works, who cares howit works?

Oh this is good news! I wonder now though, whether with so many radio signals flying around already, whether it's going to affect my brain somehow .. remote, phones, radio, TV, satellite signals, even the internet connection.

Is the voice-activated technology coming along I wonder, where we just say "lights on" .. "phone home" .. "TV on" etc?

...Let's be honest, the little ear-plugs, the tiny screens and tiny anything will always be faddy. Still being honest, even the keys on our mobile phones are too bloody small, and they've crammed in too much useless stuff on the phones and they're too complicated to learn.

I agree on the little screens, and little keys on mobiles, but I think earbud technology is moving along bloody fast. Have you actually heard those white earbuds that come with an iPod? They are amazing! The bottom end on those little suckers is mind blowing. It's like having a subwoofer in your head.

Is the voice-activated technology coming along I wonder, where we just say "lights on" .. "phone home" .. "TV on" etc?

Well, yeah.... it's already here. For about AUD$3000 (that's about 1300 pound sterling) you can get voice activated home automation systems RIGHT NOW! I've seen them on a few technology shows here in OZ on the TV. They allow light switches to turn on and off, hifi systems to switch on/off, channles to be switched, air conditioning systems to switch on/off, and so on.
Geez Bernie, you're showin' your age! Next you'll be talking about "those young whippersnappers today".

I wonder now though, whether with so many radio signals flying around already, whether it's going to affect my brain somehow .. remote, phones, radio, TV, satellite signals, even the internet connection.

Just do a Google search using the term 'electrosmog', and you'll find out quite a bit more about this. Apparently the HPA are supposed to be publishing a report that says it's real, and can cause recognisable symptoms. These include dizziness, irregular heartbeat and loss of memory. Sounds a bit like some of the symptoms of getting old to me! The official term for this is 'electosensitivity', and if the UK does acknowledge its existence, it will be amazing, because the only other European country to do so is Sweden - and normally, we are notoriously last at admitting that anything like this could possibly exist. In Sweden they have about 300,000 people who are officially recognised as sufferers.

What usually happens when something like this is adopted early is that the government says yes, it exists - but that the measured radiation levels that would have to be in place before they would entertain a claim would be miles higher than anywhere else - so no compensation of any kind could be claimed.

Is the voice-activated technology coming along I wonder, where we just say "lights on" .. "phone home" .. "TV on" etc?

That's been in place for ages. But in some ways I preferred the older version. Back in the 1970's, somebody designed and marketed a sound-activated room mood changer. It dimmed the lights, turned on the record player or whatever had been programmed, turned up the heating, and generally activated whatever you could control like this - so if you had electric curtains, it would draw them, for instance. The idea was that if you arrived back at your pad with your girlfriend and wanted to get romantic, all you had to do was clap your hands, and the room mode would change. So obviously, and perhaps quite appropriately, they called it 'The Clap'...

Geez Bernie, you're showin' your age! Next you'll be talking about "those young whippersnappers today".

Yeah, bloody 12 year-olds on TV no doubt put in place by those retards who go round saying "Young people should be running television" - young is one thing, but children-voices on mainstream TV?

Anyway, if I don't see this voice-activated stuff in the Argos catalogue, Dixons or Woolworths how am I supposed to know it exists outside of Star Trek?

I think RF radiation has a different effect on me.  After working in radio for nearly 20 years my mind is still sharp and I'm certainly not dizzy, or have an irregular heartbeat. But I have been told by my coworkers that I must be crazy for choosing radio as my career. I just love radio and you do have to be a little bonkers to work in it. So there may be some truth to the 'electrosensitivity' syndrome.